Sorry, AI Just Can’t Predict a Market Crash
Sorry, AI Just Can’t Predict a Market Crash
Blog Article
Joseph Plazo just reminded a room full of Asia’s brightest something Wall Street won’t admit: AI may be powerful, but it lacks wisdom.
MANILA — This wasn’t a pep talk—it was a strategic slap.
On a sunlit Thursday morning at the prestigious AIM campus in Manila, Plazo stood before a sea of students from top Asian universities—HKUST—ready for a sermon on AI’s glory in finance.
What they got instead? A jolt of truth.
“AI is like your smartest intern,” Plazo noted, “But you still don’t give the intern the keys to your vault.”
The room laughed. Then they grew quiet. Because he meant every word.
### AI’s Blind Spot? Human Nature
Let’s be clear—Plazo isn’t some boomer clinging to the past. He architects trading AIs. His firm, Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital, powers some of the most accurate systems across global markets. He understands machine learning like few do.
But that’s why his warning cut deep.
“The problem isn’t AI,” he told the room. “The problem is us. We keep believing it’ll save us from making hard decisions. That’s not its job.”
Plazo unpacked real-world case studies—moments when AI signaled winning trades… just ahead of a central bank pivot or an unexpected war. Moments no dataset could foresee.
### Even The Bold Questions Got Burned
A student from Kyoto asked if LLMs might someday gauge global sentiment.
Plazo grinned.
“AI can catch a tweetstorm. But it won’t sense dread in a press conference. It misses regret in a central banker’s sigh.”
The room oohed. That one stuck.
Another asked, “Can AI ever understand conviction?”
Plazo raised an eyebrow.
“Conviction isn’t math. It’s gut. It’s forged by failure and memory. You don’t download that.”
### Plazo’s Words = Financial Therapy
This wasn’t about flash trading or chatbots. It was about ethics.
Students admitted they saw AI as a cheat code—an escape hatch from risk, from thinking too hard. Plazo tore that idea down.
“You can automate your trades. You can’t automate your values.”
That line slapped. Because everyone in that room—from the copyright cowboys to the quant whizzes—wanted alpha. But not at the cost of why they started.
### AI’s Real Role? Powerful—But Limited.
Plazo didn’t trash AI. He credited its strengths:
- It filters noise.
- It backtests at scale.
- It tracks technical setups better than any human.
But it can’t read sarcasm. It fails to sense when a politician is bluffing. And it doesn’t care if your retirement burns.
“If your AI bot makes a bad call,” Plazo asked, “do you still own it? Or do you blame the code?”
That’s leadership talking.
### This Isn’t Just Markets—It’s Mindset
Plazo wasn’t more info preaching finance. He was preaching self-leadership. Use AI—but don’t worship it. Let it assist—not decide.
And yes—he still believes in the machines. He’s building tools that track geopolitics, misinformation, even psychological nuance.
But he left no doubt:
“No machine can tell you when *not* to act. That’s your job.”
### Don’t Let Your Bot Decide Who You Are
As the crowd filed out—buzzing, challenged, changed—one phrase echoed down the halls:
“AI doesn’t know your values. So don’t let it make your decisions.”
In a world chasing speed, Plazo offered something rarer:
A pause.
Because investing isn’t just about *winning*. It’s about knowing **why** you played.